Sunday, October 25, 2009

the week in betting: benitez vs ferguson in the english premier league


With both Chelsea (7/4) and Liverpool (14/1) faltering in the Premier League at the weekend, Manchester United are now 7/4 to win the domestic title, with Arsenal 4/1 and Manchester City 10/1.

I mentioned an interest in City several weeks ago and can't believe they are still such a big price considering their only defeat came in injury time at Old Trafford. They also showed character with a gutsy performance to
secure a point at Wigan with only 10 men last week, but can take maximum points this Sunday at home to Fulham (13/2). Odds of 2/5 won't do much to pay the winter bills, though, so bigger odds about the double result (to be winning at half-time and full-time) make more sense at 9/10.

The big match of the weekend kicks off an hour earlier at 2pm when Liverpool (6/4) come up against old rivals Manchester United (8/5) at Anfield.

The Reds did the double over United in the league last year, but they have been below-par of late, failing to score on their last three outings. They also face a tough home tie against Lyon in midweek, which could dent confidence further if the French champions get a result.

With the last six corresponding Premier fixtures at Anfield finishing 2-1, 0-1, 0-1, 0-0, 0-1, 1-2, I can see Fergie's men stealing a narrow away win at 8/5, with the 1-0 scoreline available at 7/1.

Last week I mentioned Burnley's hot and cold form home and away, which predictably saw them lose at Blackburn – so why did I advise the draw? This week they host Wigan at home, who haven't won away since the opening day of the season and are a team that also rely on their home form. Burnley are surprisingly odds against (13/10) for this clash which looks a touch generous considering they have taken care of Birmingham, Sunderland, Everton and Manchester United at Turf Moor this season.
Of the remaining fixtures in the Premier this weekend, both the form teams, Aston Villa (19/20) and Sunderland (6/4), could return with maximum points on their travels to Wolves and Birmingham, respectively, while Arsenal (1/2) should land the honours at Upton Park against an unpredictable West Ham outfit.

The midweek action revolves around the Champions League on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the Europa League taking over on Thursday.

The Champions League sees Liverpool (3/4) host Lyon (16/5), while Arsenal (9/20) travel to AZ Alkmaar (23/4). Lyon are likely to prove a handful at Anfield, so instead, I'll look to Robin Van Persie (4/5) to score at any time in Holland.

Wednesday sees Chelsea (1/3) face a simple task at Stamford Bridge against Atletico Madrid (7/1), while Manchester United (evens) head east to CSKA Moscow (12/5) where a point for the draw is the call at 9/4, considering United could have Sunday's clash at Anfield in mind.

The punting pick in Thursday's Europa League fixtures is Hamburg (6/5) to triumph at Celtic (2/1). The Germans are unbeaten this season and will fancy their chances against a team that has only won three of their last eight matches, including a tame goalless draw at Motherwell last week. Celtic also have had their proud home record in Europe ripped apart by Arsenal and Dynamo Moscow of late.

Green is certainly the colour on Thursday as week six of snooker's Premier League takes place in Lincolnshire, while golf's Castello Masters gets underway in Spain.

Sergio Garcia will figure at the head of the betting in his homeland, but of more value could be Justin Rose, whose last victory came in Spain two years ago. The Englishman could well figure throughout the four days – he was an eye-catching sixth in last week's Portugal Masters and looks to be hitting form.

As for the snooker, defending champion Ronnie O' Sullivan takes on Stephen Hendry in a match that should provide a few big breaks. Anyone looking to take on the Rocket, however, should think twice as he has only lost once to the Scotsman in their eight Premier meetings since 2005, with five wins and two draws: 3-3, 5-1, 2-4, 4-2, 6-0, 3-3, 5-0 and 4-2.

The best bet of the night, though, is Shaun Murphy to beat Marco Fu, who hasn't been at his best for while, making correct frame scores of 5-1 and 4-2 a real possibility. Don't forget to check Sportingbet's site for the latest odds, including in-play betting.

In-play punting will also be available for the tennis this week, where Russia's Kremlin Cup takes place for both men and women, while the Paribas Open in Luxembourg has attracted some of the leading women players, including Kim Clijsters.

Clijsters plays here for the first time since her comeback victory in the US Open in the summer, and she has a fantastic record in Luxembourg, winning four titles between 1999 and 2003.

from guardian

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